SCSU’s Banaian; Concerning Recent Economic Trends

Will the United States go into a recession?  Is the country in one now?  These are questions that economists are asking.  St. Cloud State Economist King Banaian joined me on WJON.  He says economist don't know if a recession is happening but Banaian did highlight some concerning trends.  Those trends include a decrease in the amount of jobs available.  He says the Country is back to 2019 levels as far as jobs available are concerned.  It is no longer the job seeker market it had been for the past 5 years.  Banaian says in 2022 there were 2 jobs available for every job seeker as opposed to less than 1 now.  He says there is evidence that spending is down although air travel usage hasn't changed significantly yet.

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Inflation and interest rates are two things that have been on the rise in recent years.  Inflation is still moving upward but interest rates are now coming down a bit.  Gas prices are dropping and could go below $3.00 a gallon soon, according to Banaian.  He says many jobs were giving employees cost of living raises but Banaian says in some sectors that is no longer happening.   Another trend Banaian highlighted was middle to high income people in the U.S. are shopping less at dollar stores.  He says the Dollar Tree's and Dollar Generals are reporting a drop in sales.

Banaian says we have some evidence of economic downturn with local business closings in hospitality.  He says these closings could be a normal turn in business openings and closings but it could be a sign of something more concerning.  Banaian says if recession is on the way, the majority of people will limit travel spending, going to concerts and other leisure activities.

If you'd like to listen to my conversation with King Banaian, it is available below.